Supplemental training: Strength + core + flexibility
Pace: 9:22 average pace with 10 strides
Pace: 9:44 recovery run
And that is it for the week! Yesterday and today are rest days and Saturday is the race.
Based on past race results I think I have some pretty good data for setting a goal pace for this weekend’s race. Last September I ran a very similar schedule to what I ran this month. A 5k (with a long-ish run the day before) followed by a half marathon 1-2 weeks later.
2014 Race results
9/13 10.3 mile run
9/14 Growler Gallop 5k 22:15
9/21 Capital City Half Marathon 1:46:11
2015 Race Predictions
6/5 9.0 mile run
6/6 Run 2 Save Our Youth 5k 21:36
6/27 Charlevoix Half Marathon ????
For race predictions, I like to use Greg Maclin’s “Race time estimator with adjustable “aggressiveness” settings” (found here, it is an Excel spreadsheet that you download). To establish which aggressiveness setting to use, I asked for a half marathon prediction based on last year’s 5k time and adjusted the aggressiveness setting until it predicted a 1:46 half (Moderate was the winner). Then I entered in 21:36 for the 5k and, with a moderate setting, it predicted 1:43.
I’ve also played around a bit with the McMillan calculator. My 2014 5k predicts a 1:43 half marathon. I actually ran a 1:46 half marathon, which is 3% slower than the prediction. A 5k of 21:36 suggests I am capable of a 1:40 half. Add 3% to that time to get 1:43.
And just to be safe, I looked at a third prediction, VDOT tables found in Daniel’s Running Formula. VDOT is a way of measuring running abilities based on your performance in past races. The higher the number, the better/faster you are.
22:15 5k = 44 VDOT
1:46 half = 42 VDOT
If the same relationship holds, where my VDOT decreases by 2 when moving from the 5k distance to the half, then…
21:36 5k = 46 VDOT
1:42 half = 44 VDOT
So basically anything between 1:42 and 1:43 seems like a reasonable prediction. My 5k PR predicts faster results than this (more like 1:40ish) and it is really tempting to just go for it and try to run 1:40. I’ve gone back and forth on whether or not I will just go for it, but, ultimately, I think it is a bad idea. If I pace for 1:43, that is 7:51 per mile. Pacing for 1:40 is 7:37 per mile. 14 seconds per mile faster might not seem like much, but by mile 10 it could be a disaster. This will be my third attempt at sub 1:45 and I do not want to get greedy and blow it.
In non-running related news: On Sunday Shoe and I will be celebrating 10 years together! We started dating on 6/28/2005 (we didn’t get married until 2013…we were only 19 when we started dating). I’m so lucky to have such a wonderful guy in my life. He’s even getting up at 5am on Saturday to drive me to the race and cheer for me.